RIYADH/SANAA/MUSCAT, Sept. 15, 2026 — A rapidly widening confrontation involving Yemen’s Houthi movement, Saudi Arabia and forces loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government is placing two of the world’s most important energy corridors under simultaneous pressure, driving oil prices higher and further complicating efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iran-aligned Houthis said Saudi forces had launched an extensive air campaign across Yemen in response to the group’s recent military advances and cross-border missile and drone attacks. Houthi officials claimed that more than 300 airstrikes had been carried out over five days, although Saudi authorities have not independently confirmed that figure. The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, said their latest attacks on Saudi Arabia involved dozens of ballistic missiles and drones aimed at military installations, aircraft hangars, radar facilities, runways and ammunition depots at King Khalid Air Base near Khamis Mushait.

Saudi officials said at least 13 civilians were injured in the latest Houthi missile and drone attacks on Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif, while residential buildings and vehicles were also damaged. Saudi-led forces have warned that they will take further military action to protect the kingdom’s population and infrastructure.

The fighting represents one of the most dangerous escalations in Yemen since the United Nations-brokered truce of 2022 substantially reduced large-scale combat. Government forces have been fighting to halt a rapid Houthi advance along Yemen’s western coastline and around Taiz, while airstrikes have targeted Houthi positions, vehicles and reinforcements near Mocha, Dhubab and other parts of the Red Sea coast. Yemeni government forces recently reported retaking positions in western Taiz after repelling a Houthi assault.

The Houthis, however, have also made significant territorial gains. They have seized strategic Red Sea islands, including Greater and Lesser Hanish, after earlier taking positions around Mocha, Dhubab and Perim, also known as Mayyun Island, at the entrance to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Their expanding presence has raised fears that the movement could exert unprecedented pressure over one of the principal maritime gateways connecting the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal and Mediterranean.

The humanitarian consequences are worsening quickly. The International Organization for Migration says nearly 94,000 Yemenis have been displaced during the latest escalation, while more than 2,000 people have already crossed the Gulf of Aden to Djibouti. Fuel shortages inside Yemen are making evacuation increasingly difficult for families trying to escape areas of active fighting.

Yemen’s internationally recognized government has accused the Houthis of endangering civilians and creating new waves of displacement through their offensive. Prime Minister Shaya Mohsen al-Zindani has said the rebels’ battlefield gains do not mean the war has been decided, arguing that government forces remain capable of regrouping and regaining the initiative. His government has announced emergency measures to assist people displaced from western Taiz and southern Hodeidah.

The renewed Yemen war is unfolding alongside a separate but closely connected crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial shipping remains dramatically below normal levels. Before the current regional conflict, more than 100 vessels routinely transited the strait each day, carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s internationally traded oil and gas. Recent ship-tracking data, however, has shown commodity-vessel movements falling into single digits on some days. Reuters reported only four commodity vessels transiting Hormuz on Monday, compared with prewar traffic of roughly 125 vessels a day across all categories.

Maritime security has deteriorated further following attacks on commercial vessels near the strait. Reports surrounding the most recent tanker incident, involving the Panama-flagged El Gaia, remain conflicting. Indian authorities said 13 of 14 Indian crew members were rescued after the vessel was struck and caught fire, with one sailor missing, while other maritime reporting has cited a larger crew and two missing seafarers. Iranian and U.S. accounts have also differed sharply over how the vessel was damaged. Search and rescue efforts involving authorities in the region have continued, illustrating how difficult it has become to establish definitive facts immediately after attacks in the heavily militarized waterway.

The crisis has become even more serious for global energy markets because Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, or Petroline, has also been knocked largely out of operation following drone attacks.

The 1,200-kilometre pipeline carries Saudi crude from producing regions in the east across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Its maximum capacity is about seven million barrels per day, and during periods when Hormuz became difficult to navigate Saudi Arabia had been routing roughly four to five million barrels per day westward through the system. Saudi authorities said drones struck infrastructure in the Riyadh and Medina regions, with the launches traced to southeastern Iraq. Riyadh has blamed Iran-aligned armed groups, though responsibility for the operation remains disputed.

The strategic significance of the pipeline is difficult to overstate. It allows Saudi Arabia to export oil through the Red Sea without using the Strait of Hormuz. With Hormuz already operating at severely reduced capacity, the pipeline outage threatens one of the principal alternatives available to the world’s largest crude exporters.

Repair estimates vary. Regional officials cited by the Associated Press have said major sections could remain out of service for three to five weeks, while sources familiar with the damage told Reuters that repairs might require five to six weeks, though partial operations could resume earlier.

The consequences are already visible in financial markets. Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel on Tuesday, with investors increasingly concerned that a prolonged Saudi pipeline outage, reduced traffic through Hormuz and insecurity around Bab el-Mandeb could produce a deeper global supply shortage. Reuters reported Brent at about $107.35 a barrel, while some analysts have warned prices could move above $120 — and potentially approach $130 — if disruptions persist without additional supplies or a significant reduction in demand.

Saudi Arabia also faces a shrinking logistical cushion. Available crude stored around Yanbu may sustain exports for only a limited period if normal pipeline flows cannot resume, while additional Saudi inventories stored at Egyptian facilities could provide only another temporary buffer. Estimates suggest that four to five percent of global oil supply could ultimately be affected if the route remains closed for an extended period.

At the same time, diplomatic attempts to reduce tensions around Hormuz have stalled.

Oman had been preparing to host discussions involving Iran and Gulf states over arrangements for maritime traffic through the strait, but the meeting was postponed as Saudi-Iranian tensions rose over developments in Yemen and attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Reuters and AP reported that Saudi objections played a role in delaying the meeting.

Tehran has meanwhile hardened its negotiating position. Iranian officials insist that Washington must return to the commitments contained in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, negotiated earlier this year with Pakistani and Qatari mediation, before normal conditions can be restored in Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said reopening the strait depends on the United States honoring its commitments under the memorandum. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei has separately demanded an end to what Tehran calls the U.S. naval blockade, sanctions relief and other concessions before full maritime normalization.

The June Islamabad framework envisaged an end to military operations, the progressive removal of U.S. restrictions on Iran, the restoration of commercial passage through Hormuz and negotiations toward a broader settlement. Its implementation subsequently collapsed amid renewed military confrontation and disagreements over sanctions, maritime control and regional security.

Iranian officials now argue that the strategic environment has fundamentally changed. Tehran believes its ability to disrupt shipping through Hormuz gives it leverage over Washington and U.S.-aligned Gulf governments, while the simultaneous vulnerability of the Saudi East-West Pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb further increases the importance of Iranian-controlled or Iranian-influenced maritime routes.

Washington disputes Iran’s claim of effective control over Hormuz. President Donald Trump and U.S. officials have said American forces are helping restore maritime traffic, and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently claimed oil flows had recovered substantially. But independent shipping data indicates traffic remains far below prewar levels.

The combination of renewed war in Yemen, Houthi attacks inside Saudi Arabia, threats to Bab el-Mandeb, attacks on commercial shipping, the damaged Saudi pipeline and the continued U.S.-Iran confrontation has therefore created an unusually dangerous energy-security crisis.

For global markets, the central concern is no longer a disruption at a single chokepoint. The risk is that Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline and Bab el-Mandeb — three routes on which a huge portion of Middle Eastern energy exports depend — could remain constrained at the same time.

If that scenario persists, its consequences could extend far beyond the Gulf: higher gasoline and diesel prices, increased shipping and insurance costs, renewed inflationary pressure and slower economic growth across major importing economies in Asia, Europe and North America.

And with neither Tehran, Washington, Riyadh nor the Houthis currently showing signs of a decisive retreat, energy markets are increasingly pricing in something more serious than a temporary disruption — the possibility of a prolonged struggle over the world’s most strategically important oil corridors.